Picture Courtesy of Netflix.

A client asked one of our agents last week if she should grab something near Fort Monmouth now, before "Netflix drives prices up." Fair question. People have been talking about this project for years. But most of them are working off vibes, not what's actually happening on that site right now.

Here's what's real.

Netflix bought the 292-acre former Army base and is building a $1 billion production studio there, 12 soundstages, about 500,000 square feet. This isn't a rendering anymore. Crews topped off the structural beam on Stages 3 and 4 on June 23, meaning the skeleton of the first buildings is done. New Jersey approved up to $387 million in tax credits for the project, but Netflix only keeps that money if the campus stays open and running for at least ten years.

The catch: it's not opening until 2028. Netflix is projecting thousands of jobs once it's running, but "once it's running" is the operative phrase. That's a couple years out.

Meanwhile, investors are already circling Monmouth County condos and multi-family properties, not just because of the studio, but because that corridor is one of the stronger rental plays in the state right now. Distressed condo inventory is trading around $240 a square foot versus $467 for new listings, so there's real room for someone willing to add value.

Buying a place purely because "Netflix is coming" two years before it opens isn't a strategy, it's a bet on a timeline nobody controls. Construction milestones aren't move-in dates, and tax credit clawbacks mean even Netflix has an incentive to follow through, but things still slip.

Our take: if you're already looking at Monmouth County for reasons that make sense on their own, schools, the Shore, the commute, the studio is a legitimate tailwind worth factoring in. If the studio is the only reason you're looking, wait for more of it to actually open before you price that into an offer.

A topped-off beam is real progress. It's not the same as move-in day. Know the difference before you write an offer around it.